On poor pre-launch Windows 8 adoption rates compared to Windows 7
Every month we got to see a pulse of the market, a tangible one, more than just blogger jara jara and gout feelings. Netapplications NetMarketShare http://marketshare.hitslink.com/ gives you the most accurate picture of the current state of the computer industry in terms of market share and trends.
As expected, comparatives on the pre-launch adoption of Windows 8 vs Windows 7 have been released and the situation seems bad.
Shall we start to worry and declare Windows 8 a failure already?, I say not so fast, there are a number of factors that we should account for:
1. Windows 8 hardware hardware is still not available. You read that right, it is still not available, I don't qualify keyboard and mouse as Windows 8 capable hardware neither are the bast majority of people, despite some of US early adopters having get used to it.
2. Windows 7 roll out is still in full force as it just passed Windows XP in market-share terms.
3. Windows 7 is just too good.
To say Windows 8 will be as successful as Windows 7 is just wishful thinking, Windows 8 is just the start of a new era on Windows and it will take time to get traction, there are a huge number things that still need to be in-place.
To my eyes, success for Windows 8 will be to get people into tablet-first computing before Apple does, If Apple gets to convert people into tablet first user before Microsoft does, it is game over.
BTW, Android 4.0, which runs in the bast majority of Android tablets accounts for about 0.58% of the total online traffic vs 0.26% for Windows 8, I think is safe to assume that Windows 8 will pass Android tablet user base rather fast.