How AAPL Competes with Apple
Anybody notice what makes the price of AAPL stock move the most? Did the announcement of a new Samsung phone do anything to nudge AAPL stock? How did the announcement of the Nexus 7 do? If I recall, most people said "if only Apple would make a smaller iPad". The top factors in the downward movement in AAPL stock come from AAPL itself:
1) AAPL moves down whenever rumors of Apple's supply chain not being able to keep up with the incredible demand for their products. Regardless of how high the demand is, investors get upset if Apple cannot keep up. Apple could be selling 100M iPhones in an quarter but if there was demand for 110M, the investors would be upset that Apple could not capitalize on that extra 10M units.
2) AAPL stock moves down when rumors of Apple releasing a new version of their product start appearing in the mainstream media. What other company has the mainstream TV networks reporting on rumors of potential new versions of their products? The anticipation for Apple products is so high that the media reports on it and anxious buyers wait on the edge of their seat for the announcement and they defer their purchasing until the announcement comes. The dip in sales of the aging version before the new version launches sends the price of AAPL down.
Can anybody tell me what company would not want to have these two problems? Who would not want to be in a position where they could not make enough product to meet incredible demand? Who would not want a captive audience of consumers eagerly anticipating the next version of their product with their credit cards in hand?
Yet, AAPL stock continues a nose dive since September because Apple was not apple to reach more of the captive audience in a shorter period of time. So while AAPL reports 61% increase in profit in fiscal 2012 versus fiscal 2011 and 45% increase in revenue from fiscal 2012 versus fiscal 2011 and 3M WiFi-only iPads sold in opening weekend and 5M iPhone 5's sold in opening weekend (with who knows how many more in transit) what are the competitors doing?
- Google has had the Nexus 7 selling AT COST for 3 months and according to Asus has sold less than 3M units (they are now nearing 1M per month in sales assuming iPad mini and the new Kindle Fire do not derail that)
- Microsoft released Surface to reviews that were mediocre if not horrible and has yet to post a number on how many sold (or returned)
- Samsung has not made a dent in the tablet market, but just announced 30M Galaxy S3 units sold in 5 months. That works out to 6M per month. Can you imagine what a failure the iPhone would be called if it sold only 6M units per month, let alone only 5M in its opening weekend?
Yet AAPL stock plummets as investors convince themselves that Apple's fairytale rise must magically face the stroke of midnight and * poof * they must suddenly drop like a rock. For investors it seems there is no middle ground for AAPL. They are either insanely awesome or on the verge of utter destruction.
I for one will be holding my AAPL stock and buying more if the opportunity presents itself. I am looking forward to the January earnings call where the investors will swing the pendulum the other way and suddenly believe that Apple is destined to own the universe and AAPL is destined for a $1T market cap.