How do you see I.T/Consumer electronics market going into 2013, wild guesses are most welcome :)
The tech world is so delicate and fickle, it can change drastically within the span of a few month. Who will bring the guns and who will bring the butter. Gentleman take your guesses.
Here are two scenarios I believe that are possible.
Windows 8 is not a hit a product, alienated Windows users do not upgrade or even jump onto Macs, dual booting Windows 7 for those other needs. Nokia does not sell in the U.S and gets eaten up by Android and Apple in Europe, goes bankrupt. Windows Phone becomes a niche product with a sub 6% marketshare, Microsoft then scraps it and goes back to the drawing board for a new approach with an entirely different UI and aim. Windows market share on the notebook\ultrabook\desktop PC is slashed due to poor performance of Windows 8 and booming competition from Android on x86, cheaper Apple PC's as well as even cheaper Android powered ARM desktops, all-in-one's and ultrabooks. Google and other productivity/work cloud based web services push sales of Ms office down considerably, Microsoft is further forced to slash prices and profits. Many professional, enterprise and other industry specific apps that could previously only be found on Windows are ported, re-written for ARM/Android and OSX\iOS or offered as platform independent cloud services. Microsoft retreats into the enterprise and game consoles to salvage what's left. Fire's CEO and much of the directors board, takes on new board and new strategy.
Windows 8 is considerably successful and offers a unique and pleasant experience on the tablet and other ultra-mobile devices. It spreads quickly via booming or even regular (as is now) sales of Ultrabooks, tablets, notebooks, desktops, smart TV's, XBOX and all-in-one's. Windows Metro becomes a favourite UI and Windows 8 sales figures are similar or higher than that of those for Windows 7. Windows Phone is finally recognised on a mass scale due to sporting a metro interface and being a natural extension to Windows 8, anyone who has a Windows tablet/PC etc. Sees benefit in extending the metro ecosystem onto their phone, thus Windows Phone becomes a major player in the mobile OS world, quickly eating up a lot of Android and iOS market share.
Microsoft redefines the consumer electronics world as well as the business\corporate with a number of innovative implementations we see hints of today with an improved Kinect solution , Kinect can now be found embedded in all-in-one PC's and smart TV's as well as select notebooks\ultrabooks. The XBOX/Kinect TV endeavour is flourishing and continuing the rich, interactive experience it has begun offering lately by partnering with various cable and content providers. The XBOX TV becomes (Is it now?) the premier and most thought after smartTV solution, leaving Apple TV and Google TV in the dust.Windows 8 being an app centric, digital content consumption oriented OS also comes shipped with a number of rich, integrated Metro Apps that offer a faster, more dynamic and OS integrated experience than many of Google's web services which are required to be run in a web browser. Bing's market share rises considerably because it returns near identical results to Google and does the same things and is the default search integrated into Windows 8. Google docs is forgotten because Microsoft sees benefit in offering cheaper and or free software (Office will be free on Windows on ARM I believe?) in exchange for growing market share and ecosystem, also reduces prices of high-end developer tools and makes them accessible to Joe and his dog. Developers make Windows Metro ecosystem their utmost priority and platform of choice, due to simplicity of development and multi-device portability, devs will code once and their program will run on the PC, Tablet PC, XBOX Console/SmartTV etc. , Smartphone and Windows embedded devices with little to no change to the code. Google stays a prominent and flourishing web services/apps provider, search and video search provider as well as advertising platform but Android is relegated to ultra-cheap devices and the "open source" ecosystem continues to bring little money for developers and Google alike. Samsung and other major OEM's that currently solely use Windows on the PC\notebook now also release the majority of their tablets and Smartphones running Windows metro in addition to a plethora of devices from old school IT companies such as DELL and HP.