Alternate Universe: Steve doesn't come back

This post: http://www.theverge.com/2012/5/6/3002636/if-not-apple-who-could-have-brought-us-an-iphone-level-smartphone got me thinking...

What if, in the company's darkest hour in 1996, Gil Amelio chooses Be? Steve Jobs never returns to Apple, and they go their own way. Does Apple survive? What do they do? What becomes of the rest of the industry, how does the next decade+ unfold?

Clearly there would be no iPod, no iTunes, no iPhone. Apple would be a very different company without the NeXT DNA. I posted in the aforelinked thread what I felt would become of the mobile industry, but what about the rest? It seems likely to me on the desktop side that Microsoft wins now and forever and completely. We all know what happens next when Microsoft doesn't have any competition in a field...

At any rate, it's an interesting thought exercise, if only to realize what Apple has done for us all. Let's hear your thoughts in the comments.