Could the Osborne effect push Nokia to bankruptcy?
I can't imagine the WP8 announcement will be good for Nokia. People will hear about this and probably not buy the Lumia, and who's to blame them? It's going to be superseded by WP8 handsets and it will be stuck with WP7.8. And Samsung and HTC aren't going to be as adversely affected by this, because they aren't relying on Windows Phone sales for most of their revenue.
It's been bad for Nokia with Symbian and MeeGo, even as I think those weren't competitive products, but they still abandoned those without a Windows Phone replacement on sale for months (even a whole year for the US market). Unless there is a WP8-upgradeable phone from Nokia, I think Nokia's going to see sales drop and revenue fall.
I don't know if they're going to go bankrupt though. They have enough cash on hand, but the company's stock may continue to fall, their credit rating tanking, etc. Hopefully that won't come to pass. But I am worried now.
And the Surface, unless it's manufactured by Nokia, can only make that situation worse, the Nokia Win8 tablet got a lot of excitement, even as it's just a rumor. But that's been deflated by the Surface now...
It's possible that for Nokia to survive, they will need Microsoft to buy them, get rid of the operations that Microsoft isn't interested in (spins them off and sells them), and make Nokia into a hardware division of Microsoft. The future is too uncertain for them right now. The other guys (HTC and Samsung) won't like that, but if they abandon Windows Phone, then so be it. Both MS and Nokia need to play to win at this point, and the Surface shows that MS isn't against having their own hardware in tablets, and maybe they feel the same about phones.
Disclaimer: I do like Windows Phone, but this upgrade situation is, well, perplexing. I don't want Nokia to go bankrupt, though I'd love to see Microsoft hardware and Nokia get integrated so I can see more Nokia design in other devices (keyboards and mice anyone?) I don't know what's going to happen though, the future is uncertain. I think Nokia may do just fine but the two companies need to do more to produce a phone that's genuinely world-class in both software and hardware. I have from the beginning of being a WP owner known that the specs aren't up to snuff, the updates are too slow (none for my phone currently), there are numerous bugs in the system (like IE's crashed a bunch on me), etc, and these things have made me think that more effort needs to be put into making Windows Phone more agile, versatile, and capable, in order to better compete against its more agile competitors.