Dirty Math on Lumia Sales vs iPhone

Posted by uberlaff on July 25, 2012 10:53 am 12

The following numbers are for AT&T and I'm focusing on comparing Lumia to iPhone.

5.1 million smartphones

3.7 million iPhones

1.4 million non-iPhones

Analyst estimate of Nokia Lumia 900 sales on AT&T: 330,000 - 360,000

23.57% (assuming low target of 330,000 Lumia's) of all non-iPhone sales went to the Lumia in this quarter. I guess that not bad compared to other devices. Of the remaining 1.07 Million phones, there are a number of popular models like the Skyrocket, Note, Atrix 2, Galaxy 2, One X, Titan, Titan II, Focus S, Focus Flash, and Focus 2... so against all of those, this potentially took the number 1 spot for the quarter. Still iPhone is the gold standard, let's guess how they managed.

Also, it's a little tough to compare a single phone to the total sales of a platform. So let's break this down into individual phones. This is the forums so I can make some guesses, I'm going to guess the breakdown of the 3.7 million iPhones (iPhone 4s, 4, and 3GS) looked something like this:

iPhone 4s: 60% - 2.22 Mil

iPhone 4: 30% - 1.11 Mil

iPhone 3GS: 10% - 370,000

So there you go. Make of that what you will. Perhaps Nokia should get a couple more phones into each Carrier's pipeline to compete more effectively at each level. I would love to see them release a phone every quarter through 2013 to attack each price point and get some headlines.

Now that was just for AT&T. Apple and Nokia have released their total numbers worldwide for the quarter and we see 4 million Lumia handsets compared to 26 Million iPhones. That's 1 Lumia device for every 6.5 iPhones. Could be worse. On AT&T they are presumably selling 1 Lumia for every 10 iPhones.

My take... Nokia needs to get their act together in the US. It's a major market and they need to be competitive. They're on 2 carriers and the best they are selling is 1 Lumia for every 10 iPhones. That has to improve. Worldwide looks a little better, for a line of phones that launched this past holiday season they have already sold 1 device for every 6.5 iPhones. It's not great, but it's not bad. The iPhone is the most exciting phone on the market and has a lot of customer attention. This is tough to compete with but they are at a good starting point to clean up some loose ends on a new platform and get aggressive.

Thoughts?