Impact of the win on Apple.

Posted by Indy360 on August 26, 2012 12:05 am 34

Until the patent system gets revised, I think this trial may actually cause problems for Apple in the long run. Currently, and I'm sure for the last two years since Apple started suing everyone, there must have been a mad scramble by everyone (Google, MS, Apple) to try to patent the crap out of every UI and design element, in an attempt to corner their own share of the market. What this means is that beyond this single cycle, common and useful inventions in UI technology will now be proprietary elements that is owned by only one company and not available to the others. This will actually be bad for Apple in the not so distant future.

It should be obvious that the phone OS's have copied each other's elements. Android copied some iOS features like bounce back, iOS copied some Android features like their new notification UI, both copied WebOS in elements like swipe to dismiss, etc. This copying has allowed for all platforms to maximize their usability without having to reinvent the wheel at every turn.

The problem with Apple is actually that they won this round. This means that they have a vested interest to not only protect their IP, but also to continue to use their IP. This will invariably lead to some stagnation in Apple's design while others are forced to try to innovate faster than Apple in order to create something entirely different (like Microsoft with Windows Phone). These other companies will patent their advancements to protect themselves from Apple. Apple of course will try to innovate themselves, but will not get their hands on every good idea that comes out the next two years. And because IP that has won in court is more valuable than those that have not, Apple will tend to stick to using the same old elements longer than other companies, making them advance less quickly than the others. Apple will become MS Windows as they continue to make small incremental improvements to the same system while others are able to make a cleaner break with the past and advance at a faster rate.

Already we are seeing Apple sticking to their designs longer than ever before. The iMacs, Macbooks, iPad, iPhone, iOS, OS X have all stuck with the same UI and physical designs longer than ever before, without any major changes in sight. They do this just like MS did with Windows. They have proven patents in an ecosystem that is very profitable and want to retain. The obvious and safe thing would be to continue along the same path and innovate in increments instead of giant leaps. While others stake out their UI patents over the next few years, Apple will be blocked from critical innovations just like they are forcing the other companies to take out patented features owned by Apple.

All this creates is a system of very different ecosystems, all of which are incomplete because they lack various functions. Android will be the best in doing something while Apple is best at doing something else, and never will there be one that does everything well. In the end everyone loses, including Apple.