The "Apple Effect" on WP8

Posted by oolong2 on September 2, 2012 08:36 pm 32

I think 2013 will see a significant uptick in Windows phone sales for several reasons....

1.

Constant patent pressuring/disputes with Apple....
There is a reason why OEMs are still making Windows Phones... They're hedging their bets. If Android becomes more of a liability they can easily shift their focus into Windows Phone.

2.

Google is bad at partnering...
Android was at the right place and time when OEMs became desperate to find something to fight against the rising tide of the iPhone. Android being "open" made it easy for OEMs to adopt and use it however they wish. However there was really no plan for Android. Google just wanted to get into Mobile and buying Android was an easy way to do it. Lack of any plan or true direction is the reason behind the fragmentation and lack of security that exists in Android today.

However Microsoft has been partnering for decades... they know how to create ecosystems that work for their interests, their partner's interests, and the customer's interests. Sure there is less flexibility for OEMS, but seriously how important to consumers is all that glitz OEMs constantly add to Android?

So there may come a tipping point soon where OEMs will start to trade the flexibility of Android for the ease and stability of working with Microsoft.

3.

Android apps have become "pirate friendly" and the iOS app store has become over saturated...
Which means there is less opportunity for new developers on either platforms.

Because of this, and the fact that Microsoft has made Windows Phone simple stupid to develop for, individuals and small development companies will become more attracted to Windows Phone. Some of the big name titles may not get to Windows Phone right away, but more of the new "yet to become viral" apps from up and coming developers certainly will.

4.

Hundreds of Millions of Windows 8 sales....
Windows 8 will undoubtedly be controversial for awhile. However the bottom line is it will sell if only for all the shiny new hybrid laptops/tablets that will soon be hitting the market.

It is in inevitable that businesses will start to slowly transition to windows 8. First it will be executives and sales that *must* have the latest RT or Pro tablet so they can use office on the go and securely access the network. Now that RIM is dying a slow death. It will be a no brainer for company's to choose WP8 as the standard company phone.

5.

Consumers will be looking for the "total package"....
With cloud synchronization for apps, files, and settings. It will soon be obvious that having a windows phone is best when you have a Windows 8 PC/laptop/tablet or an XBox. Just like having an iPhone is best when you have a Mac and iPad all running on iCloud. From a hardware standpoint Apple and Microsoft will appear to have complete ecosystems whereas Google will have a partial one. Elop was right when he said this will be a battle of ecosystems.

The "Apple Effect" is when Apple disrupts the industry creating new expectations and then pushes hard against the industry creating new opportunities for alternatives. Windows Phone will likely soon end up being the only viable alternative (the anti-apple...) for OEMs, Businesses, Consumers, and Developers.

The only wildcard is the 7" tablet market and personally I think Apple will end up owning that space.