Even if Windows 8 has moderated success, the Apple bubble will explode hard.
What is success for Windows 8?
Windows 8 will sell by millions in a short period of time, not because is a great OS but because it will ship with hundreds of tousands of PC's every day starting on Oct 26.
It is clear that Microsoft and OEM's are targeting the iPad directly with the value proposition they are bringing with Windows 8. A tablet that's also a laptop is just tremendous value, and given that hybrids are going to be selling at about the same price points we have today on mid-low range laptops, and not only that but also it seems to be the most popular form factor at launch, I wonder how many of these buyers are going to want an iPad still.
It is true that the iPad has a bigger ecosystem and its a mature experience, but is it going to be enough to have people buying iPads having Windows 8 tablets already?
Wheter if iPad supporters want to accept it or not, The next logical step on the iPad evolution and tablets in general is to replace the laptop, most likely as a hybrid device with a dockable keyboard (toster-fridge) many today try to have sort of that with external keyboards. Apple is trying to delay the convergence as much as they can because it disrupts it business model and they are going to eat Mac for lunch, but still, the first things said when the iPad was released where, "When will iOS converge with OSX". Not only that but many reviewers claim that their iPad review was written on an iPad, expressing a desire for a more powerful capable machine able to replace their laptops.
Apple own "Do it all" commercial seems to support that, promoting the iPad as more than a mere consumption device:
Apple - The new iPad - TV Ad - Do It All (via Apple)
So, how will the market respond to the hybrid proposal from Microsoft and its partners? I don't know for sure, but the proposal is tempting. The ecosystem is not ready? for sure, but there are very bright lights at the end of the tunel, and given that WIndows 8, will have a huge user base, many developers are readying their weapons to conquer this new, vast land and get out of iOS zombie land app store.
Then even if the response is moderated, and Miscrosoft sells a fifth par of the forecast they currently have for shippments on WIndows 8 hybrids and touch enabled devices, that will make for about 70 million people who will not have to buy an iPad this
year alone during the first year and given that the Apple stock price is now so heavily dependent on the success of iOS, things are going to flop hard.
As my boss said to me once... When you see things going too well for a company, it is time to sell your stock and invest in the next best positioned runnerup because when that bubble explodes, you will lose a lot of money.