With the announcement of Tizen and Ubuntu, question is do we need another mobile OS?

Current situation

Mobile market is kind of set for now. We have two big players, Apple's iOS and Google's Android.
Then we have Windows Phone, which fights to gain traction, even with a big company like Microsoft behind it. And the always coming BB10 with RIM behind it.

On top of things, this week Samsung announced Tizen might be coming soon, and Ubuntu announced their Ubuntu for Mobile.

Where are we heading?

One might argue that diversity brings innovation. While that may be partly true, thing is, too much diversity hinders innovation.

Picture from the past:

Remember linux on desktop? I don't think so. But I do, only because I am a long time linux fan. There are just too many distribution and while everyone may have interesting ideas, they are almost never put together to create polished user experience on linux.
Ubuntu has around 12 in-house versions itself, and there are like 30 more that are Ubuntu-based distros. Not to mention debian and all of it forks (where Ubuntu also counts).

Picture from present:

Even with two (to three) major systems, we have lots of troubles with interoperability and app support across platforms. With more platforms, things are going to be a mess. You don't think so? Have another look back few years. Just open Wikipedia about VisiCalc (here), they supported 8 platforms. Anyone who ever wrote app for multiple platforms would tell you that is ridiculous.

Yet to come systems:

Today we have

WinPhone trying to get noticed. While it it slowly getting traction, its far from valid competition.

BB10 to be released "soon".

Tizen to come also "soon".

Ubuntu to come in an year.

And few more I am not aware of or cannot remember about right now.

What I think would be for the best

  • it would be nice to have 3, 4 at max, systems. Which would have similar market share, so nobody would be able to bully others.
  • Open standards, which would make it easy to transfer data(contacts, etc) from one system to another.

My idea of status quo is simple, but world doesn't work by my orders, so take it lightly.
It is more of how I imagine an ideal environment for innovation.

That would be it, I am interested in your opinions :)