Lets predict the state of Android in 5 years
My prediction - nothing will really change.
- another 1-2 major revisions of Android, using ART as the runtime
- new Nexus and new flagships like S5/6/7 each year
- oem skins will still be on most phones, and will still be far behind native experience
- the sad state of Android updates will continue.
- GPS (Google play services) will keep getting bigger and AOSP will be limited to the basic runtime and services
- custom rom's will keep getting harder to install as new devices won't have easy exploits
- widespread adoption of VoLTE *may* make all carriers ship unlocked phones which are truly interchangeable, but this is very very unlikely in the US.