A legacy of Gartner predictions

So Gartner is out with its latest doomsday theory about the impending collapse of Microsoft: http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2013/apr/04/microsoft-smartphones-tablets. Microsoft is in the danger of irrelevance they say. Now this sure has a lot of people smacking their lips and drawing out the knives except, this isn't the first time Gartner has made such predictions.

Gartner, Aug 2006: "Vista will the be the last version of Windows in its current monolithic form" http://news.techworld.com/operating-systems/6718/windows-vista-the-last-of-its-kind/

Gartner, April 2008: "Microsoft OS is collapsing...Its all about the Web" http://venturebeat.com/2008/04/11/windows-of-opportunity-closing-gartner-thinks-microsoft-os-is-collapsing/

Gartner, Jan 2008: "Plenty to worry for Microsoft...by 2012 half of workers will leave behind the notebook at home" http://news.cnet.com/8301-13860_3-9862322-56.html

This was pretty common. In 2005 - 08, it was all about Google's dominance of the web and how that will kill Microsoft. None of the so called analysts even predicted the smartphone revolution that has hit the industry today. I guess its always been fashionable to talk about Microsoft's seeming irrelevance.

I fully agree that the trend has been shifting away from Microsoft dominance, but if you as an analyst in 2008 could not predict the coming smartphone revolution or the upcoming rise of Android and how it would change the industry landscape in the next few years, then you really have no business being in any form of prediction business.