Nexus 5 Predictions + Basis for Predictions

I know there maybe other threads, but I gotta make a pre-announcement call it right now.

Nexus 5, will start at $339/$379 16GB/32GB

Heres why. I know its built on alot of assumption,but Nexus 7 (2012) was THE tablet to get. It was cheap it was fast (until the storage controller deterioration which was fixed with the addition of TRIM support in 4.3) It had a beautiful(in its time) 7" 1280x720 screen, a decent quad core processor, and 8GB & 16GB of storage ( at launch).

  • In addition to the new shell of the Nexus 7 (2013), the tablet got a fantastic upgrade to a 7.x" 1920x1080, BEAUTIFUL screen, a Blazing fast S4(v2, only cause of the Krait 300 cores in it) and a decent storage update to 16GB/32GB. However, the base price of the device went up. From $199-> $229 and $249 -> $269 We will ignore the new addition of the single unit models with the LTE bands due to the fact that according to the N5 leaks, it will lack the RF360 baseband that also enables Verizon LTE.
  • Back to the Nexus 5. I believe that the phone will be called Nexus 4(2013). The Nexus 4 had a 4.7" screen, however it was rounded down to "4" the Nexus "5" I believe will be rounded down to "4" even though the screen will be 4.9". Its pretty much 5" but, like the nexus 4, whose 4.7" is just as close as a 4.9" (4.08% differential + it doesnt break the "5" barrier) I believe google will brand it as Nexus 4 (2013) just to maintain the great feedback that the original N4 procurred. (its easier to market a 4" phone than a 5" phone. people will disagree, but if the N4 was thought of as a ~4" device, it would be a much easier sell, then if a Nexus 5 is thought of as a 5" device. In addition, the N4 was thought of as a fantastic bargain even through out its entire 10 month lifespan)

Sorry for the tangent. back to pricing.

  • The Nexus 7 (2013), which the N5 appears to be based upon, visually, got a storage bump from 8->16 and 16->32. However, the price also went up by $30 dollars( $10 dollars for the 32 Gb version, which equates to about a 13% & 7.4% increase). I believe that the N5 will be priced at $339 and $379. Like the N7 (2013) it will be ~13% price increase ( ~7 or 8% increase for the higher capacity version) its also slightly more expensive overall than the N7 counterparts which should explain the slightly steeper price increase.
  • I feel that for the first round of Nexus devices from 2012, Google was subsidising for mindshare plus potential services revenue. This time around, while Play store and google services is still their main source of revenue, with the mindshare procured from the gen1 of "Google Play Nexus devices", they can make a decent amount of money from the devices them selves. People might be annoyed at the price increase, but in their mind, they will feel that the upgrades made to the devices, would be well worth the small price hike.
Sure. skeptics will think that the new specs would be too hefty fore a puny price increase, but think about it this way. http://allthingsd.com/20130827/teardown-reveals-googles-moto-x-costs-221-to-build/
  • the Moto X costs 221. They had to mark it up to market it as a premium device + to fund the R&D. However. I believe that the terms of the Nexus program, is for Google to get a specially designed device, and in return, the Partner would eat the cost of R&D and instead, they get a lot of good press. Think about how people thought of LG, before and then after the Nexus 4. Before the nexus 4, people thought, "oh hey. the optimus G is cool, but i got burned by the Optimus 2X. so no thanks", now "wow the LG G2 is super dope." You cant blame it on the specs increase. ZTE, Huawei, Meizu, BLU, all have good specs for good prices, but they get overshadowed just merely out of the lack of knowledge from consumers.

TL;DR

The price absolutely will NOT be $299/$349. If Google wouldnt subsidise that 30 dollar increase over the Nexus 7, they definately will not do it for the Nexus "5". People were wondering how google would make money off of subsidizing devices? My answer is that they subsidized devices, so that in the future, by offering better deals for more money, they can break even. Nexus "5" will be branded as Nexus 4 (2013) with 16/32 storage options at $339/$379

TL;DR v2

im so faded, i hope this made sense. Let me know if you disagree or agree. I had a good time typing this out :D