Windows Phone will likely to lose marketshare in Vietnam and perhaps Asia, and perhaps the World.

Hello guys, I'm a Microsoft Student Partner here; I'm from Vietnam, and I would like to report some sort of situation happening around here.

It sparks in me curiosity how people would react against this, by reading similar thread going around reddit and internet blogs. These blog articles from The Verge hold the same idea:

http://www.theverge.com/2013/9/3/4689414/great-job-microsoft-now-youve-got-no-marketshare-in-europe-in-3-2-1

http://www.theverge.com/2013/9/3/4691920/just-one-request-microsoft-just-one

and most notably:

http://www.theverge.com/2013/9/3/4689000/jumping-the-windows-phone-ship

Without any doubt, jrtorrents is not a user that would post without rationale. He is one of the most active Microsoft commenters around as well. I treat his word with respect. But that's not the reason I share with him the similar feeling inside, and I believe many other, tech-avid and Nokia employees share the same feelings as well (here). We all share a very confused feeling, because the future ahead is very unpredictable. After a whole day, we haven't seen how Microsoft would integrate the brand into their lines, how would this be beneficial to the technical progress.

But setting techies and awared people aside, Microsoft is going to lose a lot of marketshare in Vietnam and perhaps worldwide.

IDC just reported this:

Idc_2013_vietnam_medium

As you can see, Windows Phone just kicked iOS out of the door and leave tiny space for competition, except for Android. Further insight: there is ZERO HTC or Samsung or whatsoever Windows Phone have ever sighted out of the store shelves. But on the buses, on the street, you can easily spot a person with a Nokia Lumia.

Let me break this down: There is a huge, BIG HUGE, brand loyalty for Nokia here in Vietnam, On forums, on newspaper, they are worshipping the legacy Nokia have: Nokia stands for quality, sturdiness, reliability. Lumia is something fresh, well-advertised, and people are interested in, but Nokia is what wins everyone's heart over. But Microsoft is not having rights to make smartphones with Nokia branding.

Survey time! (I love survey) The last 12 hours, I marched around the street of Ho Chi Minh city asking for their opinions. Here are the raw information (please, I had no time graphs, I'm currently sick)

100 people asked (for the sake of round numbers, I was tired walking too). 100 people is interested in a Nokia Lumia. Only 6 people is interested in a Microsoft phone. 31 people is Nokia-made, Microsoft branded phone. 22 people is interested in Microsoft branded phone but "similar to what Nokia is currently offering".

Apparently, the same thing is happening around the world. I asked few friends of mine around the world, Kazakhstan friends are having similar reaction. More importantly, working with my India-based peers, this is very true considering Windows Phone is HUGE in India. I have read posts indicating same reaction in the EU as well.

People, the rationale here is people DO CARE about brand names much more than Microsoft-fans here protest. It is a FACT. Many people around the world don't really care about Windows Phone. It's an overblown belief on the blogosphere that people care about specs, about smoothness, about "ecosystem" too, but they were really affected by media, by advertisements, by sales rep and by tech blogs itself. What they really want is a fashionable, usable, "with crispy display, fast" (but based on no metrics), and has the apps they want. They can't distinguish a Tegra 3 or a Snapdragon 800, nor Android or Windows Phone. But, It is a fact that's a lot of people can distinguish brand names and follow it because of its legacy.

So, it is VERY LIKELY that Windows Phone is stepping hugely backwards in term of marketshare. If it really so, do you think that Microsoft is making a REALLY bad step moving Windows Phone forward?

As a Microsoft Student Partner, and a Microsoft fanboy myself, who wish for Windows Phone growth, the answer is, yes, Microsoft is making a huge mistake.