For a company famed for its tight-lipped secrecy, Apple’s flagship products have a surprisingly strong track record for leaking essentially in their entirety. The Wall Street Journal has a long-standing history of pre-event leaks, 9to5Mac is remarkably well-sourced, and everyone from suppliers to Best Buy employees provide a steady stream of just-plausible-enough rumors leaking out over the months running up to the launch of a new device. From the iPhone 5S to the iPad Air, few Apple devices have been a true surprise in the last few years.

It all means that, even weeks or months before Tim Cook takes it out of his pocket or an envelope or makes it appear out of thin air, we might already have a pretty good idea of what the next iPhone is going to look like. Rumors are flying fast and furious, but there are some that are both so substantiated and so consistent that they’re harder than ever to discredit. Where there’s smoke, there’s fire.

Of course, nothing is certain until it’s certain, and Apple does tend to keep at least a few things hidden. But here’s the most likely and interesting of what the rumor mill is telling us about the next iPhone.