Skip to main content

Google can predict a movie's success before release

Google can predict a movie's success before release

Share this story

If you buy something from a Verge link, Vox Media may earn a commission. See our ethics statement.

movie-theater-hollywood
movie-theater-hollywood

Google has already proven surprisingly adept at predicting Oscar winners with search data, and now it says it's figured out how to predict box office results too. With between 90 and 92 percent accuracy, Google can tell how much money any picture will make during its first two weeks in theaters — be it a blockbuster like The Avengers or a run-of-the-mill comedy like Identity Thief. To figure that amount out, Google looks at how heavily a film's trailer is searched for during the month before its premiere, both on YouTube and in traditional search. But data from immediately before a picture's release is just as important: if one movie receives 250,000 more searches than another movie that's opening the same weekend, the first picture should take in about $4.3 million more.