Uber covers 75 percent of the US, but getting to 100 will be really hard

For many, space is the final frontier. For Uber, it's upstate New York.

That's how the company's senior policy adviser Nicole Benincasa described the company's push to established a foothold there to the Daily News recently. A spokesperson for the company confirmed that upstate New York, with its depressed rural areas and struggling cities, was among the "last places" in the country Uber would be making a strong push. After that it will likely shift focus to building out its new products, like UberPool, UberEats, and UberRush. Uber says it covers 75 percent of the US population, a staggering fact about a company that's only been around for five years. But why stop there? Why not 100 percent? That question is met with nonchalance. "We'll get there," the spokesperson said. "It'll take time." Indeed how Uber gets to 100 percent remains strangely undefined.

On the surface, Uber's top executives talk openly about offering on-demand cab service to everyone in America. But to achieve a level of ubiquity on par with FedEx or UPS is much harder than it sounds (and it sounds really hard). The 80 percent of Americans who live in urban areas are an easy get, but the 16 percent who live in small towns and rural areas will be more difficult for Uber to reach. Drivers in those areas complain about a lack of passenger demand, long drives between fares, and trip revenue too tiny to cover gas or vehicle upkeep. Spotty cell service and poverty are other barriers. And achieving 100 percent coverage is seen by some as more useful in competing with rivals like Lyft than actually shifting the needle on Uber's stated goal of eliminating personal car ownership.

"We'll get there. It'll take time."

But wouldn't "100 percent coverage" look good in a commercial? The taglines practically write themselves. In fact, Uber's motto recently transformed from "everyone's personal driver" to "as reliable as running water." In a speech celebrating the company's five-year anniversary, CEO Travis Kalanick repeated that mantra recently, saying, "We're helping to build the world's most reliable transportation network for everyone, everywhere."

It's easy to see why he's so boastful. Uber is clearly winning the regulatory wars, with 46 jurisdictions passing new rules to either legalize or clear the way for Uber's operations, up from 23 in 2014. Big puzzle pieces like Portland, San Antonio, and Las Vegas finally fell into place. Other municipalities, like New York City, bent the knee to Uber's dominance. And scandalous headlines about sex-starved executives and drivers assaulting or raping passengers somehow seemed to get steamrolled as the company tightened its grip in the big markets while continuing to branch out into smaller ones.

But those smaller towns remain a stumbling block. Take Iowa, for example: Uber first arrived in the Hawkeye State with a Des Moines launch in September 2014. It has since branched out to Cedar Rapids and Ames, but dropped plans to service Iowa City after the city council passed rules that required Uber drivers to obtain city-issued licenses and affix decals to their cars. Uber claimed Iowa City's regulators "insisted on passing an ordinance that attempts to squeeze ride-sharing into [an] archaic regulatory framework designed for taxis," according to the Press Citizen. Jennifer Mullin, Uber's communications director for the Midwest and Canada, said the company has resumed talks with Iowa City officials, but it hasn't yet launched there.

Before Uber moves into an untapped market, it checks two things: the number of people who open the app looking for cars (and often seeing none) and the number of people who have tried to sign up to be drivers. This last year, Uber has used those metrics to set up shop in a number of college towns — which are especially attractive thanks to their smartphone savvy, binge-drinking student populations — like Lansing, Michigan; Burlington, Vermont; and South Bend, Indiana.

But here's the catch of driving in a small town: you don't make much money

The feasibility of offering service in small towns or rural areas is a topic frequently discussed on Uber's driver message boards. In January, a driver in Davis, California, which has a population of over 65,000, posted a screenshot of the amount of money she made from a night with 10 hails, two of which canceled. It came out to a paltry $15.51. "I had 6 paying rides in 2.5 hours which is alright, but here's the catch of driving in a small town: the rides are so short, in fact many of them never exceed the minimum $4 fare!" she grumbled.

Harry Campbell, a driver for Uber and Lyft based in Orange County who also who writes about his experiences as the "Rideshare Guy," said Uber will need to make adjustments for those drivers in sparsely populated areas, such as raising the base fare, to make the experience financially worthwhile. But the bragging rights that would accompany nationwide service would be immeasurably profitable for Uber, Campbell added. "Drivers aren't making a ton money in these small towns," he said. "The dominance effect is what they're really going after."