Investigating Global Warming using a multi-trend contour plot.


New Graphing Technique shows no long-term global warming.

Came across this interesting way of viewing all possible trends on global temperature changes. (Lines with a slope of -1 all end in the same year). Of course, the original data-set is important; it will determine the resulting contours/colors.

Essentially, when considering any trend length over the last 130 years, there has been no significant upward trend in global temperature lasting more than 5-10 years (trend length on Y-axis measured for the 'red fireballs' across the X-axis).

  • Any upward trends (red, yellow, and light green colors) are always cyclical, lasting only 5-10 years and are followed again by cooling (purple or black gaps).
  • Over the long term 'the large blue areas' show that most long term changes are below what was predicted (light green = normal AGW).
  • The 'light green triangle' created between 1970-2015 suggest that the temperature has increased since ~1960 (light green), but longer trends show that the increase is small compared to 1880 (light and dark blue region).
  • The graph also suggests we can expect it to get warmer in the next five years (looks like we are about half-way through another red ball on the bottom right corner), likely followed by another (not-surprising) cooling event.
  • The heating events seen in 1910, 1940, 1975 and 1995 took longer to dissipate (they stretch higher into the plot).
  • There is a large black cooling event in 1940.
  • Any acceleration in warming would show as red streak of slope -1. There aren't any, so, the temperature increase is steady over the long term.
  • If AGW were true, should we see a light-green triangle starting at the industrial revolution (early 1800s)? The plot suggests that nothing much happened until ~1960 when things suddenly got warmer...doesn't exactly support the 'A' in AGW...

trend analysis of global temperatures

Global temperature trend contour map


Another similar analysis here

For the above link, start on the diagonal: move right = into the future, move down = into the past.

Investigating global warming using a new graph style

Reticulating poll splines...