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“If Google raises its Play prices today, the average consumer isn’t going to do anything about it at all for 17 to 18 months.”

Bernstein says that because the average consumer only buys a new phone every 2.7 years, any switching that does indeed happen takes a while.

We’re now looking at a slide dramatically presenting a clip art pair of imbalanced scales, with a “small increase in price of Android app distribution” getting significantly tipped by the “absence of low-end iPhones,” “infrequency of phone purchases,” “learning costs” and other conclusions about the costs of switching to an iPhone.