Two separate studies released this week are announcing a bleak future for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet — and an accompanying sea-level rise across the globe. Both groups of researchers conclude that global warming is accelerating the disintegration of large parts of the ice sheets, and that the melting that is already under way is likely unstoppable. This, the researchers say, will eventually cause global sea levels to rise by at least 10 feet.
The first study, published today in Science by researchers at the University of Washington, used computer modeling and topography maps to conclude that the collapse of the Thwaites Glacier, an extremely large glacier flowing into Pine Island Bay, is already underway. This process, the researchers say, could be completed within the next few centuries and would cause the ocean to rise by nearly 2 feet. Furthermore, because that glacier is currently acting as a barrier for the rest of the ice sheet, its collapse could ultimately trigger a 10-13 foot rise in global sea levels.
In contrast, the NASA study, which has been accepted for publication in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, is predicting a 4-foot rise in sea levels as the melting rate accelerates in the Amundsen Sea sector. These predictions are the result of 40 years of observations in the area, which might explain the difference between the University of Washington results and the NASA results. In any case, both studies came to similar conclusions. "We conclude that the disappearance of ice is unstoppable," said NASA glaciologist Eric Rignot during a teleconference today, and "these changes are related in part to climate warming."
Sridhar Anandakrishnan, a professor of geosciences at Pennsylvania State University who participated in the NASA study, added during the teleconference that "the system has chain reactions in place that aren't going to stop." He suggested that the only the glacier retreat could stop is if the glaciers suddenly "had to climb uphill, but we have looked at that, and we are fairly confident that there is no such hill or mountain that could slow down this retreat."
The melting of the ice, researchers say, isn't taking place because of warm air, but because of warm water in the ocean's depths. Winds in the Antarctic are pulling the water to the surface and causing the ice to melt. This is why the researchers state that global warming is a contributing factor, but not the sole cause: natural, non-human induced changes in climate across the globe might also be at fault.
"The basic idea that we are in this kind of retreat and that it's unstoppable has been around since the 1970s," said cryosphere program NASA scientist Tom Wagner, "but we're finally at this point where we can put all those observations together and say 'Wow, we are really in this state.'" When asked if humans might be able to do something to stop the melt, however, the scientists sound bearish. "If the system, and especially if the thermal ocean forcing, stays the same," Rignot said, "the retreat will be unstoppable."
Comments
NASA JPL stream on Antartic ice
http://www.ustream.tv/nasajpl2
By n!Cola on 05.12.14 2:46pm
So it begins…
By iPhandroid on 05.12.14 2:48pm
It began decades ago.
By Rowdyguy124 on 05.12.14 3:32pm
It began millennia ago.
By Colby Orrick on 05.12.14 10:36pm
And now its speeding up because of human beings.
By Kart on 05.13.14 4:43am
Really?
By helseth on 05.13.14 7:28am
Yes, really. It was going to happen anyway but yes humans sped up the process.
By The_Falcoholic on 05.13.14 9:06am
Not so sure…
By Schnydz on 05.13.14 5:10pm
science gives zero fucks whether or not you agree
By marshallbanana on 05.14.14 1:01pm
People don’t like facts on the internet.
By The_Falcoholic on 05.15.14 2:27pm
Especially the alarmists.
By TypewriterusMonkeyus on 05.17.14 3:44am
Wow! A documentary! It’s on youtube so it must be true!
By The_Falcoholic on 05.15.14 2:31pm
Wow! Models! They produce predictions, so they must be inevitable!
By TypewriterusMonkeyus on 05.17.14 3:40am
Yes.
By thogil on 05.13.14 9:58am
There is an immediate solution. Plan now to mine, if you will, the ice as was suggested by Dr Zumberg in the early 70’s. Use the fresh water from the glaciers for irrigation, for 3rd world countries, etc. we have plenty of time to do so. When ice forms from sea water, it’s chemical structure does not like ocean salt hence, fresh water.
By Carlpangea on 05.13.14 8:11am
Zumberg? Why not Zoidberg?
By The_Falcoholic on 05.13.14 9:06am
This is an interesting idea which many have suggested, I’ve read it since the early 60’s. it isn’t just third world countries that have a lot of land practically not livable because of arid conditions, like Australia. Plopping a giant piece of ice down in a crater would make an instant lake, but how to get it there? Alternatives are to melt the ice off shore and pump in the fresh water to any number of locations for distribution. That’s not as complicated to engineer.
By davidiste on 05.13.14 12:01pm
Hope you have a taste for Jellyfish, and Trashy Warm Oceans.
By DanoX on 05.13.14 12:11pm
The world’s glaciers began to retreat at the end of the last glacial period and will probably continue to do so for another 10,000 to 40,000 years, if it’s another in the current set of glacial subcycles, it will then cycle back to a period of more glaciation. Since no one knows what causes ice ages to begin and end (the best theory I’ve heard is the arrangement of the landforms due to continental drift), no one can be sure when and where the retreat will stop. It’s very unlikely that humans have any effect on the advance and retreat of glaciation. It’s been going on on a planetary scale for over a billion years and our puny civilizations have only been around about 10,000 years.
By darko714 on 05.13.14 10:50am
Excellent post, trying to proclaim facts using studies based on such short time spans makes you wonder if the study was produced to support an agenda. The man made global warming crowd have a record of “flawed science”. Other factors like cost \ benefit or who stand to benefit from the spending never seem to come out. More important is what benefits mankind, clean water, heat, AC, cooked food produced cheaply with fossil fuel. I bet most starving people would prefer healthy crops and a comfortable home vs a few inches less of shoreline. The market should drive spending not politicians agenda. The researchers who seem to push back against these studies usually seem to use more rational timelines and less hysterical outcomes. I will give them props for having a great propaganda machine, every news outlet ran there typical one-sided scare the hell out of everyone BS.
By Techjunk83 on 05.13.14 1:53pm
Its been ongoing….nobody said that it isnt ongoing.
And just because its been ongoing, it still doesnt mean we arent contributing to it.
By Kart on 05.14.14 5:02am
I have an idea if you think it is humans speeding it up then kill yourself and it will slow down.
By KeepTheRepublic on 05.13.14 2:28pm
Here’s an idea, if you think Humans aren’t speeding it up, then show us the evidence that supports your argument.
By colimoe on 05.13.14 2:30pm
Who needs evidence when you can just close your eyes, cover your ears, and shout as loud as you can?
By Castro2 on 05.13.14 5:01pm
Bill O’reilly approves.
By The_Falcoholic on 05.15.14 2:35pm