When Donald Trump revealed his energy plan in North Dakota last week, he framed it as a jobs issue. Environmental regulations put in place during the Obama administration led to job loss among hard-working Americans, he said — and a Clinton presidency would only make things worse. "She wants to shut down the coal mines. And if Crooked Hillary can shut down the mines, she can shutdown your business too," Trump said. His own energy plan, on other hand, will create "trillions in new wealth."
But in the days since the speech, many experts have pointed out that the US is actually producing more oil domestically than it has in the last 40 years. In addition, it’s incorrect to blame environmental regulations for a decline in coal demand because the real driving force is the low cost of natural gas. And so, for energy policy experts, Trump’s speech was a demonstration of the candidate’s fundamental misunderstanding of what drives demand for various energy sources. But the biggest problem surrounding Trump’s energy plan isn’t that it makes no sense; it’s that it doesn’t actually exist — at least not out in the open.
With the November elections just five months away, the Trump campaign hasn't released a policy paper showing that Trumps plan can, in fact, reform the current energy policies in the US to create "trillions" in new wealth. (In contrast, Clinton and Sanders have both published climate and energy plans.) Because of this, practically every expert I spoke with had to first tell me that evaluating Trump’s plan is nearly impossible. "It’s not a plan; it’s a speech," says David Victor, director of the Laboratory on International Law and Regulation at the University of California at San Diego. "It’s not just that [the Trump campaign] is vague on details. It’s that we have actually no clue where this came from and how they did the basic analysis." Still, there’s some meat in Trump’s speech to dissect. So, here’s a list of the many, many things Trump got wrong:
Trump thinks making the US "energy independent" would be good for the economy
Because Trump gave too few details in his speech, it’s hard to tell exactly what he means by energy independent. For most people, this would mean relying solely on domestic production to power the US. But given that Trump also called for a renewal of the Keystone XL Pipeline project — a project that would bring Canadian oil into the US — he clearly doesn’t actually want to cut out all foreign oil sources. So, let’s just operate under the assumption that Trump wants to stop importing oil from countries outside North America.
First, the US is the largest oil producer in the world. That means that even though Trump is trying to paint the US as a country that’s trapped under the weight of foreign oil markets, Americans are actually doing pretty well for themselves.
Furthermore, relying on a single source of energy — the US’s own supply — is risky. If something were to happen, like a devastating Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, then the US wouldn’t have other, reliable sources to turn to. "You've got all kinds of economic shocks that can occur in the United States and globally," says Brian Murray, interim director of the Duke University Energy Initiative. "The more sources of supply that you have, the less likely you are to be affected by supply and demand shocks throughout the world." Robert Stavins, director of the environmental economics program at Harvard University, agrees: "It is this diversity of supply that reduces risk and that provides security, not reliance on a single source."
Trump thinks wind farms kill more than 1 million birds each year
In his speech, Trump blamed "government misconduct" for fast-tracking wind projects that "kill more than 1 million birds a year." It’s not clear where that number comes from, but either way, it's completely inaccurate. In 2014, researchers estimated that 368,000 birds are killed each year when they collide with wind turbines — a little over one-third of Trump’s estimate. The Fish and Wildlife Service, on the other hand, says that wind turbines kill somewhere between 140,000 and 573,000 birds each year.
Trump’s argument is a classic and dubious line of attack on wind energy. By some estimates, coal mining kills close to 8 million birds each year. And oil and gas kill between 500,000 and 1 million. So claiming that wind turbines are killing American birds is ridiculous in comparison. But the argument is especially disingenuous coming from Trump, who recently mocked endangered animal protections in California.
Trump thinks environmental regulations are killing the coal industry
Environmental regulations, like restrictions on federal land use, have had an effect on the coal industry, but regulatory impacts are nothing compared to the effect that the natural gas industry — coal’s main competitor — has had on energy production in the US. The truth is the natural gas is a lot cheaper right now, so coal is being left behind.
"We all know the coal industry has been largely devastated because of natural gas," says Charles Ebinger, senior fellow in the energy security and climate initiative at the Brookings Institute, a nonprofit organization. Because of this, any attempt at bringing back coal would probably have an adverse affect on natural gas production, he says.
But that’s not even the weirdest part of Trump’s position on coal. In his speech, Trump referred to using "untapped reserves of natural gas" on federal lands. This is clearly a reference to fracking. But if he removes the regulations that prevent fracking on these lands, that would probably lower the cost of natural gas even further — effectively stabbing the US coal industry in the back. "Trump’s promised support of greater natural gas fracking would actually have the effect of lowering demand for coal, causing more mines to close, jobs to be lost, etc., of the US coal industry," Stavins says.
Trump thinks the Paris Climate Agreement gives "foreign bureaucrats" control over how much the energy the US consumes — so he wants to cancel it
The Paris Climate Agreement definitely doesn’t give "foreign bureaucrats" control over how much energy the US uses. The agreement clearly states that countries can determine their own plans for cutting emissions. "I don’t know if he is ignorant of the facts or intentionally lying, but either is terrible for a presidential candidate," Stavins says.
As for "canceling" the agreement, the US doesn’t have the power to make that happen. So far, more than 190 countries have approved the agreement. But Trump might be able to pull the US out of the agreement before it’s ratified. This would be a very bad move from a foreign diplomacy standpoint, however. "With the Paris Agreement, nearly two decades of US climate diplomacy has finally won the day. And now the US would protest and drop out? Just one more way in which a Trump presidency would be an embarrassment, and a terrible threat to the welfare of the United States and the world," Stavins says.
Trump thinks the oil and gas industry support "10 million high-paying Americans jobs"
The oil and gas industry isn’t a big player when it comes to jobs in the US. In January 2016, 181,000 workers were directly employed in oil and gas extraction, while the coal industry employed another 69,000 in 2015, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Trump didn’t mention climate change — but his denial shines through
Even though Trump talked about getting rid of the Paris Climate Agreement and environmental regulations, he failed to mention climate change during his energy address. In fact, the closest he came was to say that, as president, he would "deal with real environmental challenges, not the phony ones we’ve been hearing about," presumably a nod to climate change, which he’s said is a lie.
Trump is a well-documented climate change denialist and conspiracy theorist, claiming it’s a hoax orchestrated by the Chinese. Failing to mention climate change might actually be a strategic move for him. Diving into that subject would have turned an already terrible energy speech into a farce.
Based on this speech alone, Trump comes off as both ignorant and intentionally deceptive. But he didn't stop there. In California last week, he told an audience that the state’s devastating drought is a fabrication. "They’re taking the water and shoving it out to sea," he said, before adding that he knew how to solve the problem. All it would take would be to redirect water to Central Valley farmers, while ignoring concerns about endangered fish. Trump’s denial of a very real problem is scary. But as The Grist point out, his position didn’t come out of nowhere; republicans have been blaming the drought on bad environmental policies for some time now.
Because Trump has yet to publish an energy policy paper, debunking his "plans" is a mostly futile practice. Holding back means that he can tailor his speeches to his audience without having to worry about making sure that what he says aligns with his proposed policies. "Trump has this way of taking credit for all sides of an issue," Jeremiah Bohr, a sociologist at the University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh told me. "He'll try to make himself in favor of everything."
So what does presidential candidate Trump stand for? In the last month, we learned that Trump wants to kill California’s smelt, but save birds from wind turbines. He’s also fine with denying climate change publicly while citing it as a reason to save his Irish golf course. And when he’s dealing with fossil fuels, it’s totally fine to expand fracking while somehow reviving the coal industry. The contradictions are so abundant that it’s hard to keep track. Of course, each of these positions could be entirely different tomorrow.
Update June 20th, 2016: This article was updated to include a video by Miriam Nielsen.
Comments
While "10 Million" workers involved in oil and gas industries may be a stretch high,
may be a stretch low. The BLM stats don’t mention much about the Service industries that supply the Oil and Gas Extraction sector with equipment, supplies, and other things required to pull oil and gas from the ground.
Not that Trump’s whole platform here makes any sense at all to anyone with a basic understanding of energy economics.
By VoxMediaUser1083125 on 06.02.16 1:23pm
Actually, it’s not entirely impossible. I used to work in Labor Market Statistics and I can explain how those numbers can be as they are.
Many companies outsource their labor to PEOs and such for general labor. As such, those employees are counted, not under Oil and Gas Extraction, but under Personnel Services.
By Phicksur on 06.02.16 3:13pm
Right, and that’s only one reason why this number underestimates the impact the oil and gas industry has on jobs. I guess really that was my point here. You don’t need to use this tiny number to emphasize the fact that Trump’s number here is simply a misstatement in the other direction.
By VoxMediaUser1083125 on 06.02.16 5:25pm
The number they chose is purposely misleading. They narrowed from support to direct support, and on top of it they chose 181,000. So there only about 5 times as many workers in the entire American coal and gas industry, allegedly now the largest energy producer in the world, as there are anesthesiologists in the US? C’mon.
By city talk on 06.03.16 6:06pm
I feel a growing sadness as November approaches. Clinton and Trump are really the best America can put forward?
By yodies on 06.02.16 1:23pm
Ya… Gary Johnson will be getting some new votes this cycle.
The ongoing circus is ridiculous.
By lusional on 06.02.16 1:57pm
Yep, I’ll be reprising my GJ vote. Maybe he’ll get enough votes that the party can qualify for federal campaign funding next go round.
By yodies on 06.02.16 3:40pm
This will be my first time, and I hope so as well.
By lusional on 06.02.16 6:05pm
libertarian candidate irony at it’s best.
/don’t kill me
By JesseDegenerate on 06.03.16 10:19am
Valid point, but the federal campaign funding is collected voluntarily from taxpayers. It’s a little checkbox they can check to pay $3 into the fund. The government just holds onto the money, and it’s all optional.
By yodies on 06.03.16 11:39am
Ya, i’m a bleeding heart lib that works with a few libertarians, so i’m used to hearing the term "states rights" over and over again:D My problem with it is it’s too much corporate free reign, i’m not into that.
anecdote; in general, i find (as a lib) it’s much easier to talk to libertarians for me than conservatives. Open minds are good.
By JesseDegenerate on 06.03.16 11:50am
Yeah I’m in the same boat; bleeding heart lib who constantly hears about "state’s rights" form libertarian buddies and have the same issue you mentioned; too much corporate free reign. The idea that corporations are better suited to do anything makes my head numb… at least with governments we can change leadership every few years… leadership change at the corporate level is near impossible (and no, CEO changes is not a leadership change necessarily)
By YojiExrei on 06.03.16 1:55pm
A Presidential change is no more a change than a CEO is for the company. Congress, the Senate, Supreme Court Justices, and various party big-wigs stay for as a long as any board of directors.
By dashrendaer on 06.03.16 5:41pm
He may have tough opposition from Jill Stein.
By Patlex on 06.03.16 12:43pm
No, they are not anywhere near the best, just the last 2 standing. Assuming Hillary can beat the non Democrat she is running against.
By low_tech on 06.02.16 2:08pm
I know a lot of people will find this hard to believe, but I don’t think it’s a slam dunk she wins the presidency.
The democrats have handled her with kid gloves practically. She’s been in politics a long time. I am sure a smart candidate (or at least a smart team) can attack her hard. And hurt her bad. She calls Trump a national security threat, but her own personal email server was hacked by a Romanian and likely sold off to Russia.
And that happened in the last decade of her career. She’s been involved with numerous scandals throughout her 40 (?) years in politics. She was first lady when the major policies were put in place that we now believe directly lead to the economic collapse. And she wants her husband (who was president) to fix the economy…
As a Republican, it pains me to see Trump as the nominee. But as bad as he is… he might be the better choice. What’s that saying… something about being better to stick your foot in your mouth than open it and have everyone else insert it for you? (It is better to keep quiet and have people wonder if you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt.)
By descendency on 06.02.16 4:57pm
I’m surprised, tbh, that you think this particular adage applies to Clinton more than Trump
By dz on 06.03.16 1:55am
I think she is just keeping her mouth shut.
By descendency on 06.03.16 3:57pm
I beg you, to give 2 shits about his actual plans, and to see how feasible, this, his economic agenda (trillions missing), and his foreign policy (walls!) are, because it’s ridiculous. I voted for bernie in my primary, and i dislike Hillary. But i’m not suicidal. If you wanna talk about honesty, go to any fact checking site and compare the two. The fact that you can even think what you think is crazy to me.
By JesseDegenerate on 06.03.16 10:23am
A friend of mine told me that recently Trumps spokesperson said the Mexico wall will be a virtual or cyber wall or something…. hilarious, if true.
By YojiExrei on 06.03.16 1:57pm
At least a virtual wall would cost less up front, less in ongoing maintenance, and would just be less a waste in general. A virtual solution to a virtual problem.
By Danrarbc on 06.03.16 2:57pm
Those fact checking sites show Clinton the most honest, off all the candidates.
By CougM.E.93 on 06.05.16 2:46am
Trump is the real national security threat. He was even declared unfit for the presidency by the GOP’s national security community earlier this year in an open letter signed by over a hundred experts. Clinton’s email issue is not remotely on the same level of concern.
By cbarcus on 06.04.16 9:17pm
Of course not. But between ass-backwards primary rules and a system that makes zero sense, the would be front runner who has overwhelming support from a mix of dems and republicans alike (plus the vast majority of independents) may not get the nomination.
And yeah, I’m talking about Bernie.
By Eldaino on 06.03.16 1:59pm
Support so overwhelming he has fewer votes than the ultra unpopular women he’s demolishing. It’s too bad the primary isn’t run on Snapchat, he’d crush it.
By Gumble Starby on 06.03.16 2:14pm